This page last modified 2017-02-22

Fourth Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change

February 5-10, 2017

Santa Fe, New Mexico

M-I: CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

M1

Forster, Piers

 

Diagnosing climate sensitivity from the Earth’s energy balance:

 

U Leeds

 

perfect model tests

M2

Mauritsen,

 

On the iris effect

 

Thorsten

 

 

 

 

Max Planck Inst

 

 

 

M13

Cathles, Larry

 

How solar cycle and ocean measurements suggest it may be easier

 

Cornell U

 

than commonly thought to meet a 2C post pre-industrial warming

 

 

 

target

M5

Schwartz, Steve

 

Can Global Temperature Rise be Limited to 2 Degrees? What do we

 

BNL

 

need to know and how well do we need to know it?

M-II: SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE MODELING #1

 

 

 

 

M6

Ramaswamy, V

 

Modeling of the Earth System with Applications to Weather and

 

NOAA GFDL

 

Climate

 

 

 

 

M7

Von Storch, Hans,

 

Dynamical models - purposes and limits

 

Helmholtz Zentrum

 

 

M8

Zeng, Xubin

 

Global value-added climate data development and data-based

 

U Arizona

 

model for climate projection

M9

Tsonis, Anastasios

 

A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level

 

U Wisconsin

 

 

M10

Nigam, Sumant

 

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern

 

U Maryland

 

Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

M11

Cole, Daniel

 

Polycentric approaches to climate change

 

Indiana U

 

 

M-III: SUN, CLIMATE, AND GEO-ENGINEERING

M12

Irvine, Peter

Could solar geoengineering reduce the risks of climate change?

 

 

 

Harvard U

 

 

M14

 

 

Ackerman, Tom,

 

A Strategy for the Use of Solar Climate Engineering

 

 

 

U Washington

 

 

M15

 

 

Zender, Charles

 

End of the Dark Ages: Artificial Sky Brightness in the

 

 

 

UC Irvine

 

Anthropocene

M16

 

 

Ziniu, Xiao

 

The impact of solar activities on climate

 

 

 

Chinese Aca Sci

 

 

M17

 

 

Maliniemi, Ville

 

Winds of winter: How solar wind driven particle precipitation can

 

 

 

U Oulu

 

affect northern winters

M-IV: AEROSOL SCATTERING AND REMOTE SENSING

 

 

 

 

 

M18

 

Keen, Richard

 

Volcanic Aerosol forcing of the Global Climate from Lunar

 

 

Colorado U

 

Eclipse observations

M19

 

Kahn, Ralph

 

Global Aerosol Amount and Type Distributions — Putting

 

 

NASA GSFC

 

Space-based and Suborbital Measurements Together with Models

 

 

 

 

 

for Climate Applications

M20

 

Long, Chuck

 

Are the Cloud-Free Skies Getting Whiter? Evidence Using

 

 

 

NOAA

 

Spectral Radiation Observations

M21

 

Videen, Gorden,

 

Passive Satellite Remote Sensing of Super-thin Clouds

 

 

ARL

 

 

M22

 

Moosmuller, Hans,

 

Aerosol Optics, Climate Change, and Satellite Remote Sensing

 

 

Desert Research Inst

 

 

M23

 

Liu, Yinghui

 

Using Multiple Satellites to Understand the Role of Arctic Clouds

 

 

U Wisconsin

 

 

T-I: CLIMATE CHANGE, ARIDITY AND VEGETATION

 

 

 

 

T1

Mao, Jiafu

 

Driving mechanisms and feedbacks of the land greening

 

ORNL

 

 

T2

 

Fu, Qiang

 

Response of Terrestrial Aridity to Anthropogenic Forcing

 

 

U Washington

 

 

T3

 

Sevanto, Sanna

 

Vegetation under changing climate: what determines who

 

 

LANL

 

survives?

T4

 

Swann, Abby

 

Diagnosing drought in a changing climate

 

 

U Washington

 

 

T5

 

Vila, Jordi

 

Evapotranspiration and cloud variability at regional sub-grid

 

 

Wageningen U

 

scales

T6

 

McDowell, Nathan,

 

Accelerating ecosystem impacts with climate change

 

 

LANL

 

 

T7

 

Sun, Fubao

 

Atmospheric evaporative demand in climate models: an observed

 

 

Chinese Aca Sci

 

element relevant to drought projections

T-II: AEROSOLS, CLOUDS, AND CLIMATE, PART 1

 

 

 

 

 

T8

 

Carslaw, Ken

 

Uncertainties in aerosols and radiative forcing

 

 

U Leeds

 

 

T9

 

Rosenfeld, Daniel

 

Is the aerosol cloud mediated climate forcing getting saturated?

 

 

Hebrew U Jerusalem

 

Uncertain then, highly relevant now.

T10

 

Quaas, Johannes

 

On the magnitude of the global aerosol effective radiative forcing

 

 

U Leipzig

 

 

T11

 

Soden, Brian

 

A Dynamical Cloud Response to Aerosol Forcing

 

 

U Miami

 

 

T12

 

Wilson, Kevin

 

An interfacial Mechanism for Cloud Droplet Formation on

 

 

LBNL

 

Organic Rich Aerosols

T13

 

Li, Zhanqing

 

Aerosol and Earth’s Energy and Water Cycles: A testbed of

 

 

U Maryland

 

numerous aerosol climate effects in China

T14

 

Martin, Scot

 

Anthropogenic influences on the physical state of submicron

 

 

Harvard U

 

particulate matter over a tropical forest

T-III: CARBON DIOXIDE AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS

T15

Crisp, David

Measuring Atmospheric CO2 with the NASA Orbiting Carbon

 

JPL

Observatory-2 (OCO-2)

T16

Keeling, Ralph

Insights into carbon sinks, land photosynthesis, ocean warming

 

UC San Diego

and deoxygenation from long-term measurements of

 

 

atmospheric CO2 and O2

T17

McKitrick, Ross

Empirically-Constrained Climate Sensitivity and the Social Cost

 

U Guelph

of Carbon

T18

Dubey, Manvendra,

Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations

 

LANL

from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem

 

 

Models

T19

McConnell, Joe

Black carbon and large-scale biomass burning in the Arctic

 

Desert Research Inst

during the past two millennia

T-IV: CLIMATE CHANGE AND TROPICAL CYCLONES

SESSION DEDICATED TO WILLIAM M. GRAY 1929-2016

T20

Mock, Cary

Tropical cyclone variations of the last few centuries from

 

U South Carolina

historical records

T21

Schreck, Carl

Subseasonal variability of tropical cyclones: The MJO and Kelvin

 

NC State U

waves

T22

Klotzbach, Phil

A global tropical cyclone survey: Revisiting Gray (1968, 1979)

 

Colorado State U

 

T23

Vecchi, Gabe

Towards a unified system for prediction and understanding of

 

NOAA GFDL

regional and extreme tropical cyclone activity

T24

Leung, Ruby

A New Mechanism for the Recent U.S. Landfalling Major

 

PNNL

Hurricane Drought

T25

Camargo, Suzana

Progress and challenges in understanding how climate change

 

Columbia U

influences tropical cyclones

T26

Tippett, Michael

Changing statistics of U.S. tornadoes

 

Columbia U

 

W-I: SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE MODELING PART 2

W1

Magnusdottir, Gudrun,

Multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and

 

UC Irvine

 

feedback on the winter climate

W2

Delworth, Thomas

 

Atlantic Decadal to Multidecadal Variability – Influence of the

 

NOAA GFDL

 

North Atlantic Oscillation and Large-Scale Climatic Impacts

W3

Chylek, Petr

 

Hiatus Observation and CMIP5 models: Existence, Causes and

 

LANL

 

Future Prospects

W5

Koonin, Steve

 

Framing a productive review of climate science

 

New York U

 

 

W6

Grise, Kevin

 

Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity?

 

U Virginia

 

 

W-II: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TEMPERATURE

 

 

 

W7

Wang, Kaicun

Regional climate change study require new temperature datasets

 

Beijing Normal U

 

 

W8

Bengtsson, Lennart

Assessment of temperature change from observations, reanalysis

 

Max Planck Society

and model ensemble simulations

W9

van Wijngaarden,

Effects of Inhomogeneities on Determination of Australian

 

William, York U

Temperature Trends

 

 

 

W10

Vogelsang,

Estimation and Inference of Linear Trend Slope Ratios with an

 

Timothy

Application to Global Temperature Data

 

Michigan State U

 

 

W11

McNider, Dick

An optimal strategy for using surface temperature measurements

 

U Alabama

to detect heat accumulation in the deep troposphere

W12

Miksovsky, Jiri

Global and local imprints of climate forcings in temperature data:

 

Charles U

a statistical perspective

W13

Newman, Matthew

Understanding Pacific Regime Shifts

 

U Colorado

 

 

W-III: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE, PART 1

W14

Alpert, Pinhas

Challenges in Climate Modeling over the Mid-East

 

Tel Aviv U

 

W15

Asong, Elvis

High-resolution projections of future changes in precipitation and

 

U Saskatchewan

temperature characteristics over western Canada using WRF

 

 

model

W16

Lelieveld, Jos

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North

 

Max Planck Inst

Africa

W17

Hazeleger, Wilco

Tales of Future Weather

 

Netherlands

 

 

eScience Center

 

W18

Bender, Frida

Aspects of cloud albedo in models and observations

 

Stockholm U

 

W19

Merrifield, Anna

Assessing Northern Hemisphere Land-Atmosphere Hotspots

 

UC San Diego

Using Dynamical Adjustment

 

 

 

W20

Watanabe, Masahiro

Attribution of recent intensification of the Pacific trade winds

 

U Tokyo

 

W-IV: AEROSOLS, CLOUDS AND CLIMATE, PART 2

 

 

 

W21

Coe, Hugh

The influence of Biomass Burning Aerosol on the meteorology

 

Manchester

and regional climate of South America – Results from the South

 

 

American Biomass Burning Analysis project

W22

Delsole, Timothy

Inferring Aerosol Cooling from Data

 

George Mason U

 

W23

Penner, Joyce

Climate impact of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds

 

U Michigan

 

W25

DeMott, Paul

Land versus ocean production of ice nucleating particles:

 

Colorado State U

Expectation for cold cloud influences

TH-I: CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC

TH1

 

Haine, Thomas

 

Arctic Freshwater Export: Status, Mechanisms, and Prospects

 

 

John Hopkins U

 

 

TH2

 

Zhang, Rong

 

Low Frequency Variability in the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector

 

 

NOAA GFDL

 

 

TH3

 

Ding, Qinghua

 

Influence of the recent high-latitude atmospheric circulation

 

 

UC Santa Barbara

 

change on summertime Arctic sea ice

TH4

 

Jahn, Alexandra

 

Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea ice projections

 

 

U Colorado

 

 

TH5

 

Wang, Muyin

 

Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5

 

 

NOAA

 

Models: the Present and the Future

TH6

 

Trembley, Bruno

 

Regional forecast of the minimum sea ice extent: a Lagrangian

 

 

McGill U

 

approach

TH7

 

Andresen, Christian

 

Wetter or Drier? Uncertainty in Arctic hydrology projections

 

 

LANL

 

and associated climatic feedbacks

TH-II: SEA LEVEL, AND OCEANS AND CLIMATE

 

 

 

TH9

Fasullo, John

Understanding climate change and variability through the

 

 

NCAR

altimeter record of sea level rise

TH10

Krasting, John

Enhanced Atlantic sea-level rise relative to the Pacific under high

 

 

NOAA GFDL

carbon emission rates

TH11

Portmann, Robert

The Earth's Energy Budget Across CMIP5 Models

 

 

NOAA

 

 

TH12

Peltier, Dick

Rapid Climate Change and the Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillation

 

 

U Toronto

 

 

TH13

Kirtman, Ben

The role of ocean eddies in global climate predictability and

 

 

U Miami

prediction from days to decades

TH14

Hecht, Matthew

A Reconsideration of Poleward Heat Transport across the

 

 

LANL

Southern Ocean: The Roles of Transient and Standing Eddies.

TH-III: CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN TROPICS

TH14

Li, Tim

 

 

What Controls the Walker Circulation and ENSO Changes under

 

 

U Hawaii

 

 

Global Warming?

TH15

Hoffman, Forrest

 

 

Development of a tropical ecological forecasting strategy for

 

 

ORNL

 

 

ENSO based on the ACME modeling framework

TH16

Wood Robert

 

 

Ultra-clean Layers and Low Albedo Clouds in the Tropical

 

 

U Washington

 

 

Marine Boundary Layer

TH17

Eddebber, Yassir

 

 

Influence of ENSO on Air-Sea Oxygen Exchange: Observations

 

 

UC San Diego

 

 

and Mechanisms

TH18

Hartmann, Dennis

 

 

Climate Feedbacks Involving Tropical Anvil Clouds

 

 

U Washington

 

 

 

TH-IV: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE, PART 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

TH19

Folkins, Ian

 

Accurate simulation of the temperature profile in actively

 

 

Dalhousie U

 

convecting regions of the tropics using a convective

 

 

 

 

 

parameterization

TH20

Essex, Christopher

 

Slow Time and Climate Theory

 

 

U Western Ontario

 

 

 

F-I: MONSOONS, BIOMASS BURNING, ETC.

 

 

 

 

F1

Wang, Wei-

 

Modeling aerosol-cloud-climate interactions over monsoon Asia

 

Chyung

 

 

 

 

 

SUNY Albany

 

 

 

 

F2

Carrico, Kip

 

Climate Relevant Properties of Biomass Smoke from SW US Fuels:

 

NM Tech

 

Radiative Properties and Variability

F3

Allison, Aiken

 

Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Models with Direct

 

LANL

 

Measurements of Biomass Burning Absorbing Aerosols

F4

Ward, Peter

 

The dominant role of ozone depletion in global warming throughout

 

US Geol. Survey

 

Earth history

F5

Xu, Chonggang

 

Vegetation-Insect Dynamics under Climate Change

 

LANL

 

 

 

F6

Carter, Bruce

 

Interpreting Paleo-flood Records from the Santa Barbara Channel,

 

Pasadena College

 

California

F-II: CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTHWESTERN US

 

 

 

 

 

 

F7

 

Silber, Sigmund

 

Identified and Suspected Factors That Might Influence Southwest

 

 

NMWMA

 

Climate

F8

 

Middleton,

 

Critical watersheds: Climate change, extreme events, and climate-

 

 

Richard, LANL

 

driven disturbances

F9

 

Atchley, Adam

 

Simulating Climate-induced Changes to Fire Disturbance and

 

 

LANL

 

Ecohydrology Recovery

F10

 

Bennett, Katrina

 

Impacts of Climate Change, Climate Extremes, and Climate-driven

 

 

LANL

 

Disturbances on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Colorado

 

 

 

 

River Basin

F11

 

Jonko, Alexandra

 

Global sensitivity analysis of changes in macro-scale water balance

 

 

LANL

 

indicators under future climate in the Colorado River basin

F12

 

Solander, Kurt

 

Shifts in historical streamflow extremes and its probable cause in

 

 

LANL

 

the Colorado River Basin, USA

POSTER PRESENTATIONS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P1

 

Collins, Adam

 

 

Constraining the utility of Q10 in water-limited

 

 

LANL

 

 

environments

P2

 

Demott, Charlotte

 

 

Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Air-Sea

 

 

CSU

 

 

CO2 fluxes

P3

 

Ma , Qian

 

 

Impact of Geolocations of Validation Data on the

 

 

Beijing Normal U

 

 

Evaluation of Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation

 

 

 

 

 

from Earth System Models

P4

Shi, Wenjing

Close correlations of the Northern midlatitude air tempe

 

Chinese Academy of

rature with the length of day in qusi-20 years time scale

 

Sciences

 

P5

Yang, Cheng-En

Evaluation of Extratropical Forest Biomass in Earth

 

U Tennessee

System Models over the Northern Hemisphere

P6

Mauritsen, Thorsten

Committed warming inferred from observations

 

Max Planck Institute of

 

 

Meteorology

 

P7

Lewandowsky, Stephen

Bets reveal people's opinions on climate change and

 

U Western Australia,

illustrate the statistics of climate change

 

Presented by M. Boslough

 

P8

Jung, William

Climate Change and the Timing of the Rainy Season in

 

Seoul, South Korea

Cambodia

P9

Sevanto, Sanna

Trait Based Vegetation Modeling for the Arctic

 

LANL

 

P10

Keen, Richard

Volcanic Aerosol Climate Forcing 1979-2015: Global

 

U Colorado

values derived from Lunar Eclipse observations

P11

McConnel, Joe

Black carbon, wildfire, and climate linkages in the

 

Desert Research Institute

Southern Hemisphere during the Holocene

P12

Karmalkar, Ambarish

Characterization of climate model errors using a

 

U Massachusetts

perturbed parameter ensemble AMIP and Transpose-

 

 

AMIP experiments

P13

Portmann, Robert

The Earth's Energy Budget Across CMIP5 Models

 

NOAA

 

P14

Engelbrecht, J.

Optical Properties of Suspended Mineral Dusts from

 

Desert Research Institute

Desert Source Regions

 

Presented by H. Moosmuller

 

P15

Mitchell, David

The Seasonal Cycle of Arctic Cirrus Clouds and

 

Desert Research Institute

Its Possible Relevance to Jet Steam Dynamics

 

Presented by John Mejia

 

P16

Gyawali, Madhu

Optical Properties of Aerosols Emitted from Laboratory

 

Desert Research Institute

Peat Combustion

 

Presented by H. Moosmuller

 

P17

Ward, Peter

The Footprints of Climate Chnage

 

Jackson, Wyoming

 

P18

Maliniemi, Ville

QBO-dependent relation of geomagnetic activity and

 

U Oulu, Finland

northern annular mode during the 20th century.

 

 

 

P19

Jorge R. Urrego-Blanco

Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity

 

LANL

Analysis of the Los Alamos

 

 

Sea ice Model

P20

Jorge R. Urrego-Blanco

Validation of Sea Ice Models Using an Uncertainty-

 

LANL

Based Distance Metric for Multiple Model Variables

P21

Yinrui, Li

Sensitivity of Black Carbon Aging to Modeling

 

U Illinois

Assumption in CAMChem

P22

Ian Folkins,

Variation in the correlation between low cloud fraction

 

Dalhousie University

and estimated inversion strength with moisture flux

P23

Erica Roesler

Paths Towards Routine High Resolution Atmospheric

 

SNL

Modeling of the North Slope of Alaska

 

 

 

P24

Benjamin Hillman

Evaluating Arctic clouds across scales: A comparison

 

SNL

of clouds in large-scale and multi-scale models with

 

 

observations over the north slope of Alaska and beyond